Washington and Beijing have agreed to a truce in the protracted trade war that has been raging throughout the economic world in recent years. During the entire trade standoff, the world economy suffered hundreds of billions.
With the conclusion of the truce, everyone in the world breathed a sigh of relief. Are the trade wars over and now the era of recovery will begin? Let's see if this is really true?
There will be peace
The American president presents the upcoming deal as his achievement, while the Chinese side remains significantly silent. They started talking about the agreement back in the fall, but so far both countries have not signed it. Most likely, the signing will take place at the beginning of 2020.
True, the chances of it being postponed to a later date are high, since similar deals have already fallen through at the last moment.
What Beijing and Washington agreed on is known only from the words of the American side. Thus, the White House stated that China undertakes to purchase $200 billion worth of goods from the United States over the next 2 years. In response, Washington is ready to reduce some of the duties on Chinese exports. In addition, President Trump, as a sign of goodwill, canceled the tariffs that were supposed to be introduced on December 15th.
The main goal of the interim agreement is to reduce the trade deficit between the two countries, thereby removing one of the causes of the trade war. Nevertheless, basic questions remain open. Thus, Beijing has made only vague commitments on intellectual property and is ready to abandon the manipulation of the yuan. At the same time, the planned agreement does not include a clause on the theft of US intellectual property and Chinese subsidies to Chinese companies. So it’s too early to put a definitive end to this issue, and the trade conflict is likely to continue.
In the pre-election year, the trade war and impeachment will become the leitmotif of the election platform of the head of the United States, who plans to remain in office for another 4 years.
The ancient Roman politician and philosopher Marcus Tullius Cicero argued that a bad peace is better than a good war. So after all, Cicero is not such a philosopher with a capital P. Cicero divorced his wife because she prevented him from pursuing philosophy; he was unable to combine two pleasant and useful things. Women, on the contrary, love talented philosophers and help them comprehend the truth.
Is it really possible to live in a world in which people mock and insult? It’s better to fight than to endure humiliation and allow boors to rule the world.
Rudeness is a very common phenomenon in interpersonal relationships, and in interethnic and interstate relations, rudeness generally has a place. Moreover, modern states actually have neither ethical nor legal relations - whoever is stronger is right.
Boors, boorish states do not recognize the voice of reason and diplomacy; you can only talk to them from a position of strength.
Through two “Maidans” the West took Ukraine away from Russia. Pro-Western presidents of Ukraine were appointed not through democratic elections, but through street protests and with the support of radical forces. Democracy has been trampled. as a result of which they got a civil war and the collapse of the country.
Political, economic, and cultural ties between the two countries have been destroyed. Ukraine was taken from Russia and isn’t it rudeness to impose sanctions on Russia?
Russia is accused of aggressive policies. But Russia has spent its entire history exclusively defending itself, defending itself from the Teutonic Knights, from Napoleon and Hitler. And all these monsters appeared in the so-called enlightened European civilization.
Nuclear parity deters NATO troops from attacking. They have approached the Russian borders, but do not dare to attack. Although they burn with a burning desire to create a second Yugoslavia.
Russophobes invent all sorts of accusations about the oppression of gays, about the use of doping in sports in order to provoke Russia to launch the first military strike, and then they are going to seize the moral initiative by uniting the whole world against Russia.
We don’t need a bad world with rudeness and humiliation, and the best defense is an attack.
The Western world has long been rotten in cynicism and cultural degradation. Russia today has a historical obligation to lead a jihad against people who betrayed Christianity and fell into sexual immorality.
A holy war is a war with the help of a writer's pen and philosophical thought. It is necessary to compose beautiful music and create good films. And let them be the first to go to a dirty war - we will respond to the actions of moral monsters with the spirit of God.
Weighed, discussed and signed
According to IMF reports, the US trade war with its neighbors in North America, the EU and the Middle Kingdom has cost the global economy $700 billion.
The figure is, of course, exorbitant. But what will both sides get in return? As we have already said, Washington refused to introduce new duties on $160 billion. In addition, Trump promised to halve 15% duties on 120 billion; 25% duties on 250 billion are still in place.
Now China must buy 200 billion worth of agricultural products from the United States in the next two years. America's agricultural sector has suffered the most in the trade dispute, and although farmers receive financial support from the government, they continue to complain that they are losing markets that took them years to win.
On the southern borders
Vladimir served in the 106th Guards Tula Red Banner Order of Kutuzov Airborne Division from 1988 to 1990, during the period when the formation was commanded by the legendary Alexander Lebed, at that time still a colonel.
During two years of urgent work, Konovalov had three business trips to Nagorno-Karabakh, where the escalation of interethnic conflicts had already begun. Been to Baku, Jalilabad, Lankaran. Together with the Vympel special forces group, the paratroopers ensured constitutional order and guarded important facilities, one of which was the Central Committee of the Communist Party of Azerbaijan.
Here's what a reserve sergeant says about one of his deployments:
– In December 1988, the division was put on alert and we were transferred to Baku. To be honest, the soldiers rejoiced at their business trips, considering them a release from the daily drills of their unit. Arriving there for the first time, we were surprised that people live better in the Caucasus than in Siberia. Any product is freely available, and in a regular bookstore I bought my beloved Bulgakov. At first, the locals treated us well and brought us fruits and flatbreads to the checkpoints. But the situation in the republic worsened, and the attitude towards the military cooled down. Much has been written about the extent to which the situation in the multinational region has become heated. On the southern borders of our Motherland, we played the same role as the Cossacks in Tsarist Russia.
Pyrrhic victory
Well, we found out what the parties agreed on to stop active hostilities. Let's calculate whether this whole game was worth the candle? Now we will abstract from political dividends and carry out dry mathematical calculations.
First, let's talk about China, where after the news of successful negotiations, the Chinese market immediately went up, rising by 1%. Chinese media praised the meeting between the two presidents, considering it as one big step towards ending the conflict. Beijing also benefited from the agreement politically. Thus, the US President no longer remembers the unrest in Hong Kong. The White House already believes that the protests in Hong Kong have reached their peak and are now subsiding.
On the other hand, President Trump believes that he won the trade war. His main achievement is the purchase of agricultural products by the Chinese side, which significantly improves the US agricultural sector.
Now let's look at the picture from a wider angle. Yes, the Chinese market has grown, but this does not solve the problem of the slowdown of the Chinese economy as a whole. The IMF continues to give disappointing forecasts for the Chinese economy. For example, according to the most optimistic forecasts, China's GDP next year will reach its lowest level in 30 years - below 6%. Such slow economic growth in China has not occurred since the Asian and global financial crises.
The US economy has also slowed down and is now growing at 6.3% per year - this is the lowest growth since the end of the 20th century. Some economists even predict a recession in the United States in 2021.
According to Trump, American farmers will receive $50 billion a year. However, according to experts, this figure is too optimistic. Before the start of the confrontation, China purchased 24 billion worth of agricultural products from the United States every year. According to the “first phase” agreements, Beijing will purchase 16 billion more. In total, we have 40 billion. Let’s say Beijing strains itself and spends 5 billion dollars more a year, then it will be 45 billion, and not 50 billion. But even if the US receives these 50 billion, they will only compensate for losses, and oh There can be no talk of profit. According to the calculations of one of the Democrats, the deal with China is seen as a complete defeat for the White House.
During the trade war, the United States lost 300,000 jobs, while China did not even promise to carry out structural reforms in the country. According to the calculations of Democratic Senator Chris Murphy, American farmers benefit from the deal 29 billion, when losses from the conflict amount to 11 billion. In addition, subsidies to farmers cost the US budget another 28 billion. Thus, US losses amount to 39 billion with revenues of 29 billion.
A BAD PEACE IS BETTER THAN A GOOD WAR; OR NOT?!
I continue to transfer my texts from those, so to speak, “time-tested”))) to the pages of KONT’s magazine “South Russian Front”. By the way, it’s nice that other sites that are quite actively “posting” my latest texts are starting to get to these, my first articles.
Here is one of these, written on May 19, 2015, on the 10th day of the start of my active work on CONT, my fourth article (1)
Yes, I look at many things now somewhat differently than three years ago, yes, everywhere I would replace the word Ukraine with “former Ukraine”, in full accordance with the opinion finally expressed (2). But “on the whole”, even now I can subscribe to almost every word of what was previously written. And what exactly I would like to add, I will write in the preface.
* * *
A BAD PEACE IS BETTER THAN A GOOD WAR. OR NOT?!
The arrival of the US Secretary of State in Russia and the negotiations about which Lavrov says: “Wonderful!” Some observers hastened to characterize it almost as a defeat for the United States, as an unconditional victory for Russia.
Perhaps the younger part of political scientists is happy about this. After all, it is more common for young people (until they have gained negative experience, which is “in any case” positive!) to be more naive, to wishful thinking, to expect only good things from this world with joyful and wide-open eyes.
Others, however, believe that a pessimist is an informed optimist; or, an informed realist. They, like, for example, Rostislav Ishchenko, say and write that it is not worth assessing the above event in such a simplistic way.
That the United States has not lost its main task - to maintain its global dominance. And since Russia, in their opinion, can prevent them from doing this, it is necessary to destroy it. Or at least weaken it. To then destroy it anyway.
And the point is not whether these American guys are good or bad. The point is competition - there will never be enough for everyone! “Business only” is one of the most popular phrases among Americans. By the way, it explains a lot both in their character and in their stereotypes. Because an American can be very sentimental, very sincerely sympathetic, for example, to a freezing cat. And at the same time, with an unwavering hand, he will press the release button of a nuclear bomb that will destroy hundreds of thousands of people.
Yes, then he may suffer greatly, he may even go crazy, even commit suicide... But the job will already be done. Only business...
Is this explained by the fact that the first Americans were people of “not the most honest rules” whom the old world, sighing with relief, squeezed out of itself? Or, because very often these were very determined people, less likely than others to suffer from the hypnosis of inertia?
But let's return for a moment to the young and the optimists. And let’s ask them and ourselves: did something so global happen that the United States agreed to recognize our victory in this, excuse the tautology, global confrontation? And are they able, even if they die, to do this?
Very, very doubtful...
However! What if a situation arises where a war will be less beneficial to them than a frozen conflict like the Transnistrian one?
It is clear that this can only happen if the continuation of hostilities clearly leads to the victory of the troops of Novorossiya (read, Russia) over the troops of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (read, the USA). But it seems that everything is heading exactly towards this, and even our articles and comments - yes, colleagues! — they tell the enemy very convincingly about our victory. Precisely a quick victory as a result of the continuation of military operations by the former Ukraine.
And therefore, with great reluctance, struggling with all its might to fight off the most stupid members of the American community and the most militant (read - again, the most stupid), the States will act as gentle doves of peace, with an olive branch bringing people happiness and complete asisy.
On the other hand, as Igor Kabardin writes, for example, in the article “John Kerry’s Cunning Plan”: “The peculiarity of American diplomacy ... is that it is ready to do only what is already prepared for decommissioning for one reason or another” (by the way, thanks to the authors of “ Kerry came to Putin for support before the start of the American Civil War."
Recently, it also suddenly began to seem to me that perhaps reality is not quite what young optimists see it as. And then, excuse me, a chain with many “possibles”.
That is, realizing that, on the one hand, it may not be possible to drag Russia into a war with the former Ukraine, but, on the other hand, after the next escalation of hostilities, this under-country may cease to exist altogether, the States could conclude that little harm to Russia from the former Ukraine is better than no harm at all. And so, perhaps, they are ready to save the above-mentioned sub-state entity for now. At least as a possible springboard for subsequent actions against Russia.
Yes, there are huge debts and the pre-default state of the former Ukraine. Which, as it were, should “soon” force this country, which was recently so friendly and so dear to us, to “collapse” as a state.
This idea runs through many of Rostislav Ishchenko’s articles. But, by the way, my admiration for his political analysis did not prevent me from sometimes wanting to argue with him. Well, at least regarding the fact that, probably, it is not worth drawing a conclusion from the fact of the lack of the necessary amount to maintain the functioning of the former Ukraine at the current (at least) level about its imminent death, or extrapolating from this.
Because
a) the ever-increasing discontent of the population can be explained indefinitely by the machinations of an external enemy; Moreover, the means of fooling is still in the hands of the authorities;
b) the most active of the most dissatisfied can be sent to the front and to the SBU;
c) all decreasing funds should be directed to maintaining those, so to speak, bodies of the state apparatus that will allow us to at least formally talk about the continued existence of the state.
After all, there have been examples in history when law enforcement agencies, due to lack of funding, were even sent “to feed” at the expense of the people who were somehow surviving.
...And suddenly, literally today, I come across a phrase by Rostislav Ishchenko, in one of his many interviews, where he says that “you can maintain the visible existence (of the state) for as long as you like” (comparing such a state, which has been falling for a long time, but cannot fall completely, at least from Somalia).
So we didn’t have an argument...
So, after all, a second Transnistria is being prepared from Novorossiya?.. Should we not see its imminent victory over Bandera’s Ukraine?
But then what remains is an almost evolutionary (with revolutionary elements) path. When (with the help of Russia, of course), Novorossiya will grow stronger, trade with Russia and other members of the ever-increasing Customs Union, and the rest of the former Ukraine will rot, be viciously jealous and, from time to time, habitually shoot at it.
And its neighboring districts and regions, the closest, of those who can see the difference in life “here” and “there” more than others, will gradually rebel against the remnants of the central government of the former Ukraine and join the power of the new, Novorossiysk. Of course, as long as the above-mentioned remnants of the authorities of the former Ukraine will manage to at least somehow keep the remnants of the country from sliding into Makhnovshchina.
* * *
Now there is an understanding of what is most likely happening (3), why Russia has even strengthened cooperation with this Anti-Russia (4). And what will happen immediately or almost immediately after the transit significance of the former Ukraine for Russia loses its last meaning.
Because after the end of gas transit, the authorities of the DPR and LPR will suddenly remember that the Minsk agreements have not worked for a long time, they will break through the demarcation line, that is, the front, and go to the borders of the regions. Perhaps this will also be accompanied by the simultaneous creation of 2 or three People's Republics. And the reformatting of the former Ukraine into a new state, potentially transitional to joining Russia, will begin. After a series of absolutely necessary measures, ranging from complete denazification and ending with the achievement of self-sufficiency of the region.
And finally, there will be “solid” hope for a new future...
* * *
Links
1. A BAD PEACE IS BETTER THAN A GOOD WAR. OR NOT?! (previous version)
2. Why Ukraine can now only be the former
3. Until new “streams” are put into operation, it is better not to touch the former Ukraine...
4. PUTIN WILL NOT ALLOW UKRAINE TO FALL FINALLY
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Specially for the magazine “South Russian Front”
on
the CONT
website " Independent News Channel"
https://cnl.su/
and NEWS EXPRESS
https://news-express.ru/
The beautiful is far away, don’t be cruel to me
The upcoming deal is just a respite and does not change anything in the big picture of the trade war, because the main issues remain unresolved. And to solve them, the White House must achieve structural changes from Beijing, without which ending the conflict is impossible.
The truce will only reduce the trade imbalance between the two countries by increasing Chinese purchases of American products. That is, Beijing will spend more money in the US, which will leave Europe without a Chinese buyer, and this will certainly put pressure on the euro.
We should not forget about American tariffs on imports from the European Union, which will also weaken the economy of the Old World.
Brazil and Argentina, as suppliers of legumes to China, will also be missing hundreds of millions in their budget.
We believe that the conflict between the United States and China has not exhausted itself. Donald Trump started it, and he is now the initiator of the “first phase.” The next 10 months of the election race, Trump needs to tell voters something positive. We will not be surprised if the truce continues until the presidential elections, and after that the trade war flares up again.
The end of the Chinese economic miracle?
The Chinese economy is also going through difficult times. According to the latest data, it is growing at the lowest rate since 1992. The country's economy slowed to 6% in the third quarter of 2021, and is likely to decline further.
Industrial production in the country fell to 4.4% in annual terms, the worst result since February 2002. Investments in fixed assets are below expectations - the figure rose only by 5.5%.
According to experts, the further slowdown in China's GDP will continue in the current year 2021, and the growth rate will be 6% or even lower. Some experts believe that the official data on the Chinese economy are greatly embellished, and the situation in the country is much worse. This can be judged by China's trade turnover with other countries, which decreased by more than 14% in 2019.
What will be next? Most likely, the global economy will show weak signs of recovery in 2021, which will intensify in 2021, unless of course both sides return to the trade conflict.
As for US-China relations, tariffs are likely to remain in place until at least mid-2021, after the US presidential election. Then the PRC will be able to argue the need to return to lower tariffs by showing that there is progress under the established agreements.
“If anything happens, we’ll help you out”
A person fulfilling a narrow circle of obligations often does not see the purpose of his actions. Once, at the beginning of the service, Vladimir asked his company commander a question about this. The answer was something like this: “This is the army, the fighter. You don't have to think. You must obey, even if the order seems absurd to you. The precise fulfillment of assigned tasks is the secret of many Russian victories.”
– Over time, the meaning of many of General Margelov’s statements came to me: “Knocked down - fight on your knees, you can’t walk - advance while lying down”, “There are cartridges - there is food”, “Any task - at any time!”... They are motivators internal discipline of a person for life. I am 49 years old, I have a gold GTO badge, I can easily meet the standards and am ready to join forces at any time. How many young sofa experts can do this? – Vladimir Anatolyevich asks a rhetorical question. – I agree that a bad peace is better than a good war. But every man must be ready to defend the Motherland. By the way, in my youth I was eager to go to Afghanistan. And he informed the chief of staff, Major Tokmakov, in very pompous words about the responsibility of the younger generation. And he... sent me in clear text: “Soldier, you are a fool...”
Geopolitics is a complicated thing. Oh, if only conflicts could be resolved peacefully everywhere and always! In practice it doesn’t work; today even a child knows what hot spots are. And yet, the father of an adult son is sure that it is better to negotiate with opponents than to later fight with enemies. And if anything happens, the paratroopers will help out. As we know, there are no exes.
