Washington and Beijing have agreed to a truce in the protracted trade war that has been raging throughout the economic world in recent years. During the entire trade standoff, the world economy suffered hundreds of billions.
With the conclusion of the truce, everyone in the world breathed a sigh of relief. Are the trade wars over and now the era of recovery will begin? Let's see if this is really true?
There will be peace
The American president presents the upcoming deal as his achievement, while the Chinese side remains significantly silent. They started talking about the agreement back in the fall, but so far both countries have not signed it. Most likely, the signing will take place at the beginning of 2020.
True, the chances of it being postponed to a later date are high, since similar deals have already fallen through at the last moment.
What Beijing and Washington agreed on is known only from the words of the American side. Thus, the White House stated that China undertakes to purchase $200 billion worth of goods from the United States over the next 2 years. In response, Washington is ready to reduce some of the duties on Chinese exports. In addition, President Trump, as a sign of goodwill, canceled the tariffs that were supposed to be introduced on December 15th.
The main goal of the interim agreement is to reduce the trade deficit between the two countries, thereby removing one of the causes of the trade war. Nevertheless, basic questions remain open. Thus, Beijing has made only vague commitments on intellectual property and is ready to abandon the manipulation of the yuan. At the same time, the planned agreement does not include a clause on the theft of US intellectual property and Chinese subsidies to Chinese companies. So it’s too early to put a definitive end to this issue, and the trade conflict is likely to continue.
In the pre-election year, the trade war and impeachment will become the leitmotif of the election platform of the head of the United States, who plans to remain in office for another 4 years.
Similar phrases in different languages of the world
This catchphrase has Russian and foreign analogues. Here are similar phraseological units:
- Bad silence is better than good grumbling (Russian)
- A bad corn promise is better than a good lawsuit (English) - A bad compromise is better than a good lawsuit.
- Ein schlechter Friede ist besser als ein gerechter Krieg (German) – A bad peace is better than a good war.
- Parempi laiha sopu kuin lihava riita (Finnish) – A thin world is better than a fat dispute.
In everyday life, the words “A bad peace is better than a good quarrel” usually call for the reconciliation of people who have already quarreled or are ready to move on to open conflict.
Weighed, discussed and signed
According to IMF reports, the US trade war with its neighbors in North America, the EU and the Middle Kingdom has cost the global economy $700 billion.
The figure is, of course, exorbitant. But what will both sides get in return? As we have already said, Washington refused to introduce new duties on $160 billion. In addition, Trump promised to halve 15% duties on 120 billion; 25% duties on 250 billion are still in place.
Now China must buy 200 billion worth of agricultural products from the United States in the next two years. America's agricultural sector has suffered the most in the trade dispute, and although farmers receive financial support from the government, they continue to complain that they are losing markets that took them years to win.
A bad peace is better than a good war
Of course, in a truly critical situation (attempts to unlawfully recover significant material damage, dismissal under the “wrong” article, fine, failure to compensate for significant damage to health, etc.), the help of a lawyer is irreplaceable.
However, the interview raises questions about how to further strengthen the employer’s obligation to pay the employee more and more with maximum guarantee, without reference to the employee’s performance for the business or service.
You need to seriously weigh the pros and cons before going and fighting in the courts if we are talking about issues that are more annoying than critical, for example, vacation pay not paid on time or a bonus that is too small.
Most often, recruiters hear stories about how they were underestimated, oppressed, underpaid (in their opinion), and offended at work from those candidates who could not boast of any special achievements. As a rule, such employees do not go to the courts - firstly, they are lazy, and secondly, they latently understand that “a bad dancer, as you know, always has his boots too tight.”
But bad things happen to good professionals, too. Most often, issues are resolved rationally: if you don’t like this job, we’ll look for another one. Thank God, we do not have serfdom, and employers have been experiencing an acute shortage of competent specialists for the last ten years.
But there are two more categories of workers who are still not embarrassed by the prospect of spending time in court rather than looking for a new job.
The first category includes employees who constantly improve their knowledge of their rights while performing their duties in a strictly formal manner. They are not too eager to grow with the business. They do not care about their own effectiveness for the company as a whole, but they are ready to defend their right in court, for example, to constant salary indexation, and especially zealously during a crisis.
Will the employer be interested in maintaining such employees? Most likely - no, unless by court decision.
Another category of those who want to defend their rights in court includes completely different specialists, who have only one thing in common - they had the imprudence to give free rein to their emotions, i.e. they were offended by the employer and cannot in any way get over this offense.
The fairest advice that can be given to such people is to urgently look for another employer. But, alas, they want war! And they go to a lawyer, a lawyer, then to court. What's next?
Here the case is won: the employer receives a court decision and a slap on the nose, the employee will receive his additional payments, the lawyer will receive his fee, and both will receive moral satisfaction. Then the lawyer will take care of the next process, the former employer, just in case, will reprimand HR and will calmly continue to work, but where can the former employee get a job?
Lawyers don't seem to care about this issue. Even Ms. Buyanova admits that workers who win lawsuits against their employers will be forced to quit: “They will, of course, leave this job. There is no escape from this if a person files a lawsuit while being an employee of an organization, but in other organizations, it is quite possible that they will take it.”
As always, the neat wording is “it’s possible that they’ll take it.”
Alas, according to our statistics, most likely they won’t take it.
Why would a good, honest employer choose from among applicants for an open vacancy the one who came into conflict with the previous management and brought the matter to court? After all, an honest employer is looking for a loyal, responsible professional who you can rely on! The very fact of a lawsuit with an employer is very easy to identify; an employer or a recruitment agency, as a rule, carefully studies the candidate’s recommendations before hiring. But even before checking references, a professional recruiter will think about a candidate’s suitability when he notices signs of touchiness, conflict, disloyalty to a previous employer, or domestic squabbles.
Apparently, it is worth recognizing that even a masterly won trial (with the help of the most professional lawyer) is a very sharp thing that you can cut yourself on and seriously ruin your life.
“What, now we shouldn’t defend the truth?” – the real fighters will exclaim.
Everyone is free to do what they see fit within the framework of current legislation. The purpose of this commentary is to talk about the most common consequences of the holy fight for an underpaid bonus.
An intelligent, responsible professional who knows his worth:
- firstly, he will make inquiries about the integrity of the future employer - now this is not difficult to do, and does not require any expenses other than time;
– secondly, he will carefully study the employment contract (contract/agreement) before signing it (after all, we have learned to read any font in banking contracts and insurance company contracts). And these documents are signed, at the latest, on the day of going to work;
– thirdly, during the probationary period, he has every opportunity to check the promises and agreements that were announced at the time of admission, analyzing and assessing the internal situation in the company;
- and, finally, fourthly, if the employer is still potentially prone to deception, he will not waste time and expose his future to unnecessary risk by collecting material for the court over the course of months, but will quickly and competently resign.
A competent specialist will do this because he knows that he will earn faster, more and more joyfully with a competent and decent business than with a dubious one.
Would you, dear reader, take on as your partner or employee a specialist who was suing his former employer over a bonus?
Pyrrhic victory
Well, we found out what the parties agreed on to stop active hostilities. Let's calculate whether this whole game was worth the candle? Now we will abstract from political dividends and carry out dry mathematical calculations.
First, let's talk about China, where after the news of successful negotiations, the Chinese market immediately went up, rising by 1%. Chinese media praised the meeting between the two presidents, considering it as one big step towards ending the conflict. Beijing also benefited from the agreement politically. Thus, the US President no longer remembers the unrest in Hong Kong. The White House already believes that the protests in Hong Kong have reached their peak and are now subsiding.
On the other hand, President Trump believes that he won the trade war. His main achievement is the purchase of agricultural products by the Chinese side, which significantly improves the US agricultural sector.
Now let's look at the picture from a wider angle. Yes, the Chinese market has grown, but this does not solve the problem of the slowdown of the Chinese economy as a whole. The IMF continues to give disappointing forecasts for the Chinese economy. For example, according to the most optimistic forecasts, China's GDP next year will reach its lowest level in 30 years - below 6%. Such slow economic growth in China has not occurred since the Asian and global financial crises.
The US economy has also slowed down and is now growing at 6.3% per year - this is the lowest growth since the end of the 20th century. Some economists even predict a recession in the United States in 2021.
According to Trump, American farmers will receive $50 billion a year. However, according to experts, this figure is too optimistic. Before the start of the confrontation, China purchased 24 billion worth of agricultural products from the United States every year. According to the “first phase” agreements, Beijing will purchase 16 billion more. In total, we have 40 billion. Let’s say Beijing strains itself and spends 5 billion dollars more a year, then it will be 45 billion, and not 50 billion. But even if the US receives these 50 billion, they will only compensate for losses, and oh There can be no talk of profit. According to the calculations of one of the Democrats, the deal with China is seen as a complete defeat for the White House.
During the trade war, the United States lost 300,000 jobs, while China did not even promise to carry out structural reforms in the country. According to the calculations of Democratic Senator Chris Murphy, American farmers benefit from the deal 29 billion, when losses from the conflict amount to 11 billion. In addition, subsidies to farmers cost the US budget another 28 billion. Thus, US losses amount to 39 billion with revenues of 29 billion.
Origin of the proverb “A bad peace is better than a good fight”
Although this phrase has especially taken root with us, its author is the well-known Cicero. As you know, he was a very wise politician and philosopher, so he perfectly understood the meaning of the world for people. That is why he prefers even a bad or even inconvenient peace more than a good war. Yes, she can be like that: brave, courageous, beautiful. But no battle can even be compared in the slightest with a calm world. Only he can give a person ease and desire to live.
Similar proverbs
To fully understand the proverb, we would like to give examples of similar folk sayings. We are sure that this will help you better understand its essence.
- The world is busy and work is progressing. From this phrase we understand that if there is peace around us, then absolutely any work no longer seems so difficult.
- To live in the world is worldly and to create. Here the world represents an ideal state in which a person can make worldly dreams come true.
- Peace is a great thing. And in conclusion, a phrase that is obvious in its meaning. This world is truly a great thing, isn't it?
As you may have noticed, there are no exact meanings of proverbs here. The fact is that the phrase “a bad peace is better than a good fight” is unique. You are unlikely to be able to find its exact analogues. Therefore, to confirm the words about the importance of peace for the Slavs, we have collected three proverbs about it. We are sure that this will help you better understand the importance of peace for the Russian people.
Are you for a bad peace or a good war? In any case, study your native language, because it contains so many beautiful phrases!
The beautiful is far away, don’t be cruel to me
The upcoming deal is just a respite and does not change anything in the big picture of the trade war, because the main issues remain unresolved. And to solve them, the White House must achieve structural changes from Beijing, without which ending the conflict is impossible.
The truce will only reduce the trade imbalance between the two countries by increasing Chinese purchases of American products. That is, Beijing will spend more money in the US, which will leave Europe without a Chinese buyer, and this will certainly put pressure on the euro.
We should not forget about American tariffs on imports from the European Union, which will also weaken the economy of the Old World.
Brazil and Argentina, as suppliers of legumes to China, will also be missing hundreds of millions in their budget.
We believe that the conflict between the United States and China has not exhausted itself. Donald Trump started it, and he is now the initiator of the “first phase.” The next 10 months of the election race, Trump needs to tell voters something positive. We will not be surprised if the truce continues until the presidential elections, and after that the trade war flares up again.
What is the meaning of the expression
Why is a quarrel so bad, because usually it is a way to bring to light what has boiled over, with which you can no longer live, and therefore liberation from evil? However, any quarrel is aggression, where it is difficult to respond with anything else, which means that a vicious circle closes, not helping to solve existing problems at all. Hitting someone is a simple, and in exceptional cases, really the only possible way to put someone who has presumptuous in their place, only the line between “can” and “should” in this case is very thin, and on the scale of states, “hitting” too often means “ unleash hostilities." The expression “A bad peace is better than a good quarrel” often evokes sharp hostility among ardent fighters for something, who consider conflict to be the basis of development, but historical examples of “good quarrels” clearly demonstrate that behind them lie crippled human destinies, for which these fighters are clearly responsible not up to par.
